Many called last week the hardest of the Keir Starmer’s premiership. MPs, voters and journalists alike started openly questioning his political judgment.
Now he’s lost two senior advisors in 24 hours. A blow to any Prime Minister. But when they’re your Chief of Staff and Director of Communications it’s even more challenging.
Many in Labour credit Morgan McSweeney with the landslide win in July 2024. He was Starmer’s political compass. His resignation will hit harder than most. He has never been without McSweeney by his side since his election as Leader.
A week is a long time in politics. Questions over his antennae are mounting. MPs head back to their constituencies for recess on Thursday. That would already make the next few days crucial for Starmer.
But now things have become more challenging for him.
Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar has called for him to stand down.
This intervention is significant, even when Cabinet Ministers are now tweeting their support en-masse for the PM’s position.
If Keir Starmer survives the coming days – which given the Cabinet’s tweets of support, is currently looking likely – danger isn’t far away.
A Parliamentary by-election in Greater Manchester looms. There are fears Labour might fall into third behind the Green Party and Reform.
The elections in May are yet another danger spot. Polling indicates a very difficult set of results for Labour.
Starmer has one thing in his favour. There’s a lack of obvious successors who can make a move for the leadership right at this moment.
There are unanswered questions from some MPs regarding the two front runners: soft left candidate Angela Rayner and Labour ‘right wing’ Wes Streeting.
Other names come up. The Armed Forces Minister and decorated Royal Marine Al Carns, and Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood are two of the most discussed alternatives.
But they lack the profile and support among Labour at this time.
MPs aren’t the only consideration. The markets are another factor.
Business is nervous about what comes next, including what a potential ‘left wing’ leader might mean. Starmer’s allies stress the need for stability. They have spent significant time warning against moves that could hurt economic recovery. This might ultimately be in Starmer’s medium to long term favour.
For businesses, change brings risk and opportunity.
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