On Wednesday night, TEAM LEWIS hosted a panel discussion in our office bringing together polling, journalism and frontline political experience to unpack a fast-moving question: what happens next for Labour – and what does it mean for business navigating heightened political volatility?
With local election aftershocks still settling and leadership speculation accelerating, the takeaway was clear: the pace of change is quickening, and the risks (and opportunities) for organisations are becoming harder to ignore.
The TEAM LEWIS audience heard it early. The day after Aubrey Allegretti, The Times’ Chief Political Correspondent, updated us on his exclusive that Wes Streeting was expected to resign, it happened.
We’re now in an increasingly volatile political world.
- Will Streeting directly challenge the Prime Minister in the coming days?
- Can Keir Starmer hang on for a few more months?
Wes’ hopes meet cold reality
He might have moved first with his resignation today, but the reality is tough for the now-former Health Secretary. Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive of Survation, told our audience that against every opponent, Wes Streeting will lose.
That might explain why he did not announce an immediate challenge to coincide with his resignation, while still calling for a change in leadership.
Politics is fast-moving, and it may still be the case that Streeting launches a direct challenge, but at the moment there is no contest. Starmer remains in place.
There are even suggestions that Streeting has cut a deal with Andy Burnham, in return for being appointed Chancellor, and will therefore not contest the leadership election.
The language in his resignation letter leaves all these avenues open in the coming days, and many of us will be waiting eagerly for the next moves in this drama.
The Burnham blues
The big question remains what happens with the Mayor of Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham.
He now has the Parliamentary seat he craved, with a pending by-election in Makerfield.
The question is whether he could win, given Labour’s dire polling.
A by-election with Burnham on the ballot would be a completely different proposition to one with a generic Labour candidate. Makerfield is the kind of Greater Manchester seat which allows him to run on his record, with the implicit understanding that voters are backing Labour’s next leader as much as they are backing a local MP.
The Green Party have already signalled they may not contest the election in return for a policy agreement with Burnham. Reform, meanwhile, will be throwing everything at the contest.
The big question is whether “Brand Burnham” can pull it off – and whether he can be strong enough to be his own man.
Europe calling?
If Burnham does not have a coronation, and there is a contested path to the leadership, the question of Europe will surely come up.
Labour members are overwhelmingly pro-Europe and there is significant remorse at the damage Brexit has done. To attract support, candidates will promise ever warmer relations with Brussels to fix the UK’s economic woes.
The polling from Lyons Lowe suggests that Labour needs to shore up its progressive voting block – currently bleeding to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats – for any chance of winning the next election.
Europe could be a way to do so, but it carries risks. A former minister and TEAM LEWIS Senior Counsel cautioned against moving too fast, with Reform leading the polls and the danger of relitigating Brexit.
Labour MPs have echoed similar concerns in recent days, pointing to the sheer number of councils falling to Reform in the local elections. These areas may well be lost to Labour forever.
The chance of seeing Nigel Farage as Prime Minister horrifies Labour MPs – but it is a serious risk.
Business as usual?
Kelly Edwards, Head of Public Affairs at TEAM LEWIS, spoke for business as they try to come to terms with the chaos. With change happening at lightning speed, consistent, sustainable and expansive engagement is necessary to balance risk and opportunity – and, crucially, to understand what is happening.
Nowhere is this more obvious than in local government. The recent local elections saw significant changes, with hundreds of areas now under No Overall Control. Deal-making and compromise will be the norm.
Businesses with a local or development focus need to be reaching all parties to ensure their projects can get the green light.
Building this local engagement has a national effect, as newly significant parties like Reform and the Greens get to grips with the realities of running councils and sharpen their focus ahead of the next General Election. They will be leaning heavily on their local leaders to demonstrate success and competence – essential if they are to succeed nationally.
The old adage is a week is a long time in politics. Three years is an age. There will be many more twists and turns in this saga before it is settled – and further crisis and challenge before the election.
Getting ahead is critical.
Political change is moving fast. Want to get ahead of the risk? Speak to TEAM LEWIS UK’s Public Policy team.
