Farage fest or bust?
After a summer knocking on doors in Clacton, Nigel Farage can say ‘Bin there, done that’. Having seen off the serial satirical candidate Count Binface, Farage will return to Westminster as the MP for Clacton after the summer recess. While his victory was never in doubt, the question was always going to be the scale of his win and what it meant.
Reform positioned the by-election as Farage vs. The Establishment, but three heatwaves later, things didn’t quite go to plan. After the major parties dismissed the by-election as a vanity project and chose not to stand candidates, Count Binface was his only real challenger.
Farage skipped the count, opting the spend the night with his supporters at a rally. Initially he declared be damned if he was going to stand on a stage and be ‘demeaned and humiliated by nobodies’. Perhaps sensing this was compounding the mockery, Reform tried to use the Friday morning media to say it was about his safety instead. Even new Prime Minister Andy Burnham stood between Binface and a fox at his own Makerfield count.
But away from the Essex coast, what does this tell us about where voters are and what it means for business ahead of the Budget?
Reform’s momentum
The key question is what does this mean for Reform’s momentum? After nearly 18 months of consistently topping national polls, the party has underperformed in recent by-elections.
Having forced a by-election in its own Leader’s seat, Reform has spent the last 6 weeks without their most recognisable spokesperson front and centre on national media. While they’ve won in Clacton, a man with a bin on his head still got nearly 30% of the vote – more than the bookies predicted.
This campaign was top-down, and heavily centralised. While that strategy might work in by-elections, it’s not sustainable long term. There is clearly an appetite for voters to coalesce around an anti-Reform candidate. While the party now has data in Clacton that it didn’t have before, to have a genuine impact in seats across the country at the next General Election it needs on-the-ground infrastructure to get their message out.
Farage and Reform hoped this by-election would rob Labour of a Burnham bounce and focus the debate on small boats and the major parties’ so-called ‘Kangaroo Court’ in Parliament to stop the Reform surge. Arguably, in that sense they’ve failed.
While Farage will point to an increased vote share, the reality is they go into their party conference in a few weeks’ time facing the same issues as before the by-election. And a possible second Clacton by-election later in the year.
Over to the standards commissioner
While Farage will say the people of Clacton have backed him with facts on the table, the reality is, furore surrounding personal and party donations have impacted the party’s standing.
Parliament’s Standards Commissioner is investigating Farage’s receipt of an undeclared £5m donation just before the 2024 election. The by-election doesn’t change that. Depending on the outcome of that investigation, there is a real possibility of another by-election in Clacton.
While he would still be the favoured candidate, continued scrutiny of Reform’s finances and a split right-wing vote would see his vote share decrease, quashing any momentum.
So, what next?
While Farage spent the summer in Clacton, Labour had a seamless leadership transition and secured a comfortable win in the Manchester Mayoralty by-election. Andy Burnham is putting meat on the bones of his 10-year strategy and has faced little scrutiny. He’s now embarked on a listening tour of the country ahead of Parliament’s return in September.
For business, informing new Ministers’ thinking is the opportunity. To lay bare the challenges and propose solutions.
While there is some speculation of a possible early election, Burnham’s desire to reform social care means we’ve probably got at least another year before that’s a genuine prospect. But business can’t be complacent. With both the Green Party and Reform struggling in recent months, Labour strategists will be tempted to cement their position and guarantee themselves another five years.
Now is the time for business to engage across the political divide ahead of the Party Conference season and the Budget in late October. TEAM LEWIS’ Public Policy experts stand ready to help businesses navigate the coming weeks and months. Sharing insights to inform business critical decisions and help you position yourself as a partner to government.
If you would like to know more about how to maximise the opportunities and mitigate the risks of the ever-evolving political landscape. Get in touch today.
