A flood of news from the White House has left many feeling overwhelmed. Everything seems to be changing. What does it all mean? Why does it matter?
Well, America is an important country. It is the largest economy in the world. It is the most powerful military force on the planet. It is the largest single point of provenance for global capital. It is the most dynamic nation ever created. It is still the number one choice for migrants – including entrepreneurs from China.
America leads the world in so many fields – science, technology, education, commerce, culture and the arts. So, when America gets a new President, everyone pays attention. Even more so when they have as much energy, dynamism and original thinking as this one. To make sense of it, we need to understand what’s changing and what’s staying the same.
To keep up, we need to learn a new language.
The new wave of tariffs should not come as a surprise. The President applied tariffs in his first term and is applying them in his second. Some will stay in place. Some will be used to negotiate other things the President wants. There is no change in policy or approach here. Similarly, the commitment to strengthening U.S. borders and making neighbors pay for it is not new. Perhaps the speed and zeal of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) is new, but there is no change of policy here.
Even ‘Drill baby drill’ is not new. In his first term, the President withdrew America from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. The willingness of the U.S. to withdraw from global treaties and organizations e.g. the UN Human Rights Council and United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Administration is also what we’ve seen before.
To make sense of it, we should think of DJT as FDR in reverse. The administration wants a small state. We’re seeing this trend in other parts of the world. For example, in Argentina with President Javier Milei who has dramatically cut the size of government. The Executive Orders not only reduce the size of the federal payroll but target specific parts of it, e.g. specialists dealing with DEI.
Speed is the name of the game.
What we’re seeing is a sequel to Trump one, but on steroids. It’s better planned, organized and moving faster as a result. It is the speed of movement, which is dizzying and disorientating but, if you’re trying to bring change, then momentum is vital to overcome inertia. This is an important principle in all organizational change. President Trump is different to his predecessors.
He’s used to power and celebrity status. He’s used to dealing with powerful business leaders. He has no interest in underpinning ancient, arthritic world institutions or being the leader of the free world. Objectively, it has cost blood and treasure and when did anyone thank America for that?
It’s hardly any surprise that America has lost interest in fighting for other country’s interests. This feeling is also flowing into a perception that many have – and not just in America – that their governments are not showing sufficient prioritization of their own electorate. They’ve seen the cost of living rise faster than it has for many years. They’ve seen immigrants given free accommodation and prioritized healthcare while they are still waiting.
They’ve seen billions spent on weapons and overseas aid to help other countries while infrastructure crumbles at home. They feel abandoned and they want someone to fight for them for a change. This is the essence of America First, but you can see it echoed in movements all over the world.
The absence of America on the world stage, though, has implications.
Many have said that China would challenge America, but why would it when America is relinquishing leadership voluntarily? The first test of this will be in the South China Sea. The era of strategic ambiguity as a doctrine towards Taiwan is probably over. President Trump is a pragmatic businessman, not a politician.
He may see Taiwan as a bargaining chip to end China’s support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. 2027 is the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Liberation Army. Of course, Taiwan produces 70% of the world’s semi-conductors. The new President would rejoice if some of this manufacturing capability returned to the US. Foreign-born entrepreneurs can do well in America. They can rise to be close to the President like nowhere else on earth.
There are more surprises to come.
Trump may be aggressive, but he may end up with a Nobel Peace Prize. It’s clearly an objective and it might come for ending wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and stopping a war with China.
And don’t think it will all be over in four years. The name Andy Ogles may be another surprise. This little-known Republican Representative from Tennessee is pushing an amendment to allow President Trump to run for a third term in office. Even if that doesn’t happen, Trumpism will outlive Trump in the same way that Thatcherism outlived Thatcher.
Whether you think the President is a Saint or Sinner, this new world will be different. The age of strategy is over. Fluency is in. Agility is the margin of victory. We’re in for a change. And that’s exactly what America voted for.
